martes, 15 de abril de 2008

The Merriman Market Analyst Comments for the Week Beginning April 14, 2008


MMA Comments for the Week Beginning April 14, 2008
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

Last week’s report stated, “This week could be a little bit wild, especially since Jupiter alone represents the principle of exaggeration. A quick 200-400 point down day in the DJIA is within the realm of possibility sometime this week.” On Friday, just one day after the important Sun-Jupiter square, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 256 points. Count that as another score for Financial Astrology, based on the studies reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.”

For the week, many of the world’s stock indices posted their high of the week last Monday, and then spent the rest of the week selling off. The sell-off was slow at first, but then gathered momentum as the week came to an end. Most indices were down for the week, with exceptions in some Asian markers, like the Hang Sang and India’s NIFTY.

In the study of Financial Astrology Neptune and Jupiter have rulership over Crude Oil. On Wednesday, one day before the Sun-Jupiter square, Crude Oil posted yet another new all-time high, reaching 112.21/barrel. It didn’t sell off much, though, from there. But I continue to look for this market to top out no later than May 2008, followed by a 50-90% decline over the next 1-3 years. Is that a given? No, of course not. It based on the projection of a single astrological principle, namely the 7-year transit of Uranus entering the last one-third of the zodiac sign known as Pisces. My observation has been that when Uranus transits through the middle third of a sign, the sectors ruling that sign end of “bubble,” and are followed by 50-90% declines before Uranus leaves that sign. The last instance was Uranus in Aquarius, 1995-2003. Both Uranus (the planet) and Aquarius (the sign) rule technology. The NASDAQ Composite, which is comprised on many technology companies, soared to its all-time high of over 5000 in March 2000. By October 2002, this index was testing the 1000 mark, a loss of nearly 80%.

In other financial and commodity markets, the Euro currency made yet another new all-time high against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday’s Sun-Jupiter square. And the price of Corn also surged to another new all-time one day earlier.

Short-Term Geocosmics

There are no major geocosmic signatures in effect this coming week that have a high correlation to reversals in financial markets. But there are slew of such signatures arising the following week. This means one of two things: either the move down that started last week will continue into the following week, or the move down ended Friday and the market will start another rally immediately this week, and continue rising into the following week.

Of interest to Financial Astrologers will be the full moon of April 20 as the Sun enters Taurus. At the same time, heliocentric Venus enters the first sign of Aries. Each of these ingresses heralds a change of trend in many financial markets, probably starting the following week. Thus this week is nevertheless important, because it will give us a clue as to what to expect the following week. Of importance then will be the T-square between Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. Remember: whenever there are aspects involving a combination of Mars, Jupiter and/or Uranus, the potential for big range days is higher than usual. In this case, two of those three planets will be in a powerful T-square formation in cardinal signs. Maybe that is the time when the U.S. Treasury starts sending out those $600 and $1200 tax rebate checks, and the American public goes on the “impulse spending” spree that officials hope will stimulate the economy. These kinds of quick fixes may be beneficial to an ailing economy in the short-run, but with a disciplined savings approach, recipients of the government’s largess are likely to spend not only that money, but more, because they will feel falsely empowered. Once the benefits wear off, don’t be surprised if the individual debt condition is worsened, not bettered. The effect of such a stimulus spending package is likely akin to giving free drinks to alcoholics. They won’t stop spending once the start. Right now, people are worried about their future and the economy, and they are pulling in their over-spending habits. This stimulus package will likely change all that for many people, and for all the wrong reasons. I am basing this assessment on the future transits coming up, involving the powerful T-square of Saturn-Uranus-Pluto, starting in November 2008 – just about the time it will take to spend all this fresh infusion of cash, plus more.

Longer-Term Thoughts

Your know current economics conditions are worrisome when the former heads of the Federal Reserve Board start criticizing what the current Federal Reserve Board is doing. On April 9, the Wall Street Journal posted two articles of interest, both of which can be related to Financial Astrology. On the editorial page, the headline was titled “Volcker’s Demarche.” In this editorial, former FRB Chair Paul Volcker “notes that when ‘concerns about recession are rife,’ the central bank will be tempted to ‘subordinate the fundamental need to maintain a reliable currency’ to the impulse to shore up a flagging economy. The danger is that you lose both battles, as the U.S. did in the 1970’s, and wind up with stagflation.” The article goes on to relate what happened in the early 1970’s. Commodity prices were rising rapidly, in such markets as soybeans and crude oil. “Then, as now too, these were explained away as speculative price run ups and not as a harbinger of a broader inflationary trend.” To that, I would point out that then, as now, Pluto was ingressing into a cardinal sign (Libra) and about to form a hard square with Saturn. You can see the correlation of Pluto entering cardinal signs on a special article I have posted on the front page of my web site at www.mmacycles.com, titled, “Pluto in Capricorn: The Good, the Bad, Even Worse, and Redemption.”

The second Wall Street article of note that same day is titled, “Greenspan Defends Tenure as Chief.” Although much of the article is about the prior FRB Chair Alan Greenspan stating that the nation is already “in the throes of a recession,” and it is basically not his fault or policies that are responsible for today’s conditions, the most intriguing part of the article has once again to do with Paul Volcker. The article states Mr. Volcker “criticized the central bank’s response to the turmoil that has gripped financial markets since last summer.” The article goes on to say that Volcker said, “… the markets… have become so complicated and unbalanced that they have lost the ability to function fairly and effectively. The Fed ‘judged it necessary to take actions that extended to the very edge of its lawful and implied power, transcending certain long embedded central banking principles and practices.” The article goes on to state that “Actions taken by the Fed ‘will surely be interpreted as an implied promise of similar action in times of future turmoil.’ Mr. Volcker argued that the Fed has also compromised its relatively stringent emergency-lending standards.”

Two weeks ago Treasury Secretary Paulsen released a sweeping proposal to overhaul the banking system and give the Federal Reserve Board increased powers. One week later this proposal was considered “dead in the water.” I commented that the transit of Pluto to the natal Sun-Pluto opposition of the FRB chart implied just the opposite: instead if increasing the powers of the Federal Reserve Board, the powers that be are more likely to strip it of its powers in the next two years. The economy is on thin ice, and politicians will always look for a scapegoat. It was a fine gesture by Paulsen (Aries) to try to protect his fire sign buddy Ben Bernanke (Sagittarius) before the debris hits the fan. But it didn’t work, and once again the storm clouds of Pluto entering Capricorn are gathering. Oh sure, there will likely be bounce in the economy and stock markets before the election. But once this unnecessary stimulus package runs out of steam and the reports show the country and its individual’s in greater debt - and not less debt – the storm is due to strike. And that’s just about the time that Saturn will before its waning square to Pluto in 2009, which part of a T-square also involving Uranus. We haven’t seen that celestial pattern since 1930-1931.

So what can you do? Think green – as in anything that will take this country and this world off its addiction to crude oil as the primary source of fuel. It’s killing us, both economically and in terms of military engagement. With Uranus in Pisces, and Neptune in Aquarius, a revolution in energy is not only possible, but probably necessary from an economical need. Despite the trends towards economic chaos and hardship, this is one of those times in humankind’s history where altruism and economics can converge in a win-win situation to protect itself from this storm, whose clouds otherwise continue to gather just over the horizon.


The Merriman market Analyst
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-14,-2008/